James Cunnama

The Third Brexit Extension Provisions Are Explained

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The Third Brexit Extension Provisions Are Explained

European Union leaders congratulated themselves on having consented a second Brexit bargain in mid October. However, their parties were short-lived.

MPs had voted in principle to take into account the new withdrawal arrangement (WA) but were more compared to the very short period they were offered to scrutinize it.

The rest 27 member nations of the EU have agreed to a expansion of this Article 50 procedure until January 31 2020. This is actually the third British petition for an expansion of this Brexit negotiation procedure. Former prime minister Theresa May asked the initial in March 2019, which finally ended up stretching the Brexit deadline before April.

Not able to ratify the withdrawal arrangement in that time, May again sought another expansion.

Conditions of The Expansion

The conditions of this third Brexit expansion are extremely like those of the preceding two. It is a so-called “flextension”, meaning there is an ultimate deadline of January 31, but the UK can leave prior to that date when the present withdrawal arrangement is ratified earlier.

This third expansion has political requirements attached to it also. Hence the UK is forecast to abide by its commitment to genuine cooperation and to behave in a constructive and responsible way.

In inventing a third expansion, the EU has confirmed it won’t renegotiate the deal throughout the expansion. This, however, seems like posturing. The same has been stated during the next expansion however, the deal on the desk then was amended to look for an alternate way to solve the Irish boundary issue.

However, in addition, there are some crucial differences between this expansion and the previous two. It’s been requested as a result of legal duties placed on Johnson as opposed to his approval it is required. In reality, the British prime minister — along with agreeing a much more challenging version of Brexit compared to his predecessor — has said he did not need to have an expansion and that he’d rather take the UK from the EU with no bargain. The latter hasn’t been received by EU leaders. Since the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier set it “No bargain won’t ever be Europe’s choice… it’d always be the UK’s choice, not ours”

Brexit fatigue is much more palpable across the EU27 today, therefore it’s been politically more challenging to agree that an extension now around. France has revealed even greater reluctance to sign until the program than last time, asserting that a far clearer awareness of what the expansion is for was required. The December general election seems to have fulfilled France’s requirement.

The political scenario in the united kingdom is much more fluid than in the time of both preceding extension requests. The ratification of the withdrawal arrangement is frozen and an overall election will happen on December 12. Having a further expansion it expects that, if an election occurs, this will ease the ratification of the withdrawal arrangement and consequently an orderly Brexit may occur. The EU expects the UK not to change the letter and the spirit of the withdrawal arrangement, and has cautioned against any attempt to modify the agreed text outside recognition.

What Next?

The EU won’t start discussions on the future connection before the UK leaves, however this doesn’t indicate it can’t find ready.

The EU is currently preparing a brand new task force from the European Commission, led by Barnier, to direct the post-Brexit discussions with the United Kingdom. After Donald Tusk, the incoming president of the European Council, informs the British authorities to make the best use of the extra time given by the consecutive extensions, he’s additionally offering friendly advice to the UK: get prepared for another, probably tougher, negotiation period.

In Brexit conditions, the immediate political future appears more uncertain today that an election will happen in December prior to the last extension deadline. Since May’s bet to predict an early election revealed a change in the makeup of parliament isn’t the panacea to ratify a withdrawal arrangement.

It’s not far-fetched to assert that this might not be the final extension the UK government must ask. Regardless of the apparent shame, Brussels will probably agree to a different if requested. In the end, flexibility would be the EU’s most efficient tool as it intends to realize its chief Brexit target — preventing a destructive no-deal British death.